On October 10th, Brazil announced the preliminary determination of anti-dumping measures against Chinese titanium dioxide, with a provisional additional anti-dumping tax amount of $578/ton (about 25%) for Longbai Group, $654/ton for Anhui Jinxing (a subsidiary of China National Nuclear Corporation Titanium White, about 29%), $1420.83/ton for other listed companies (including CITIC Titanium Industry, Huiyun Titanium Industry, Pangang Vanadium Titanium, etc.), and $1772.69/ton for other unlisted companies.

Brazil is an important exporting country of China, and the preliminary anti-dumping ruling of Brazil has been implemented. From the perspective of the process, it is currently only a preliminary determination for downstream customers, and there will be a separate enterprise protest stage and final determination (possibly in April 25) in the future. There is still uncertainty in determining the final tariff, and the progress needs to be closely monitored.
According to WITS data, from 2019 to 2023, the total amount of titanium dioxide imported by Brazil from China was 6.95, 8.53, 8.54, 8.58, and 100800 tons respectively (accounting for 7%, 7%, 6%, 6%, and 6% of China's export volume; accounting for 56%, 63%, 61%, 66%, and 78% of Brazil's import volume), with a compound annual growth rate of 9.76%.

After entering 2024, according to customs data, the export volume and proportion of titanium dioxide from China to Brazil have increased year-on-year. From January to August 2024, the total export volume of titanium dioxide from China to Brazil was 98800 tons (accounting for 7.70% of China's export volume), a year-on-year increase of 30.67%.

Considering that the future selling price may be between 3000-3400 US dollars per ton, leading companies may benefit from the imposition of lower anti-dumping duties. Referring to the United States and the European Union that have already implemented anti-dumping measures, according to Bloomberg, the selling prices of titanium dioxide in the United States and the European Union are $3140/ton and $3360/ton, respectively. At the same time, based on the price ratio of titanium dioxide exported from Kronos, Chemours, and China to Brazil in the past, as well as considering the ideal gross profit margin of Kronos and Chemours, we believe that the future price range of titanium dioxide in Brazil may be between $3000-3400 per ton. Considering that the import unit price of titanium dioxide imported from China to Brazil is 2425 US dollars per ton, Longbai will impose an anti-dumping duty of 580 US dollars per ton, which is approximately 3000 US dollars per ton. Therefore, even if tariffs are imposed, Longbai and Anhui Jinxing still have a lower price advantage brought by the imposition of anti-dumping duties, but the export difficulty for other small and medium-sized enterprises may increase significantly.