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The titanium dioxide market with 'a dull knife cutting
2024-11-04

October has concluded, and the traditional peak season has passed. Perhaps our expectations were too high, or perhaps the demand market is genuinely sluggish; the demand during this "Golden September and Silver October" period fell short of expectations. As we enter the fourth quarter, the titanium dioxide market is primarily operating in a weak and stable manner, consistent with last week's situation. However, based on past experiences and observations, the next 1-2 weeks are also a sensitive period for pricing, with potential changes likely.

At this stage, producers are adjusting operations and prices based on their actual production, sales, and inventory conditions. Currently, most producers are operating normally, with only a few undergoing maintenance or production restrictions. Overall, the supply side remains relatively abundant. Of course, producers hope to maintain current price levels despite some being near the cost line or already experiencing losses. At least the current situation is acceptable because it follows a "slow adjustment" pricing strategy. This approach is mainly stabilized by major large-scale producers, so "a dull knife cutting flesh" might not be as uncomfortable. At least there is room to wait for a decline in raw material prices, which can create some cost margin from a production cost perspective.

In recent stages, the titanium ore prices in regions like Panxi have been weak and sluggish. Despite supply contraction strategies, they remain in a weak state. Additionally, in the fourth quarter, producers with certain sales gaps may have room for negotiation on some orders, which is a bearish factor from the market perspective. Recently, strict environmental inspections in Southwest and East China regions have led to a decline in some producers' operation rates and a reduction in supply volume, which are bullish factors under the oversupply situation. Therefore, regarding the transaction market, it remains in a state of intense multi-empty confrontation, with the focus still on the latest policies of major large-scale producers.

Currently, the mainstream quoted prices for most domestic sulfate process rutile and anatase titanium dioxide are 15,500-16,500 RMB/ton and 14,000-15,000 RMB/ton, respectively. The mainstream prices for domestic and imported chloride process rutile titanium dioxide, differentiated by application, range from 19,000-22,000 RMB/ton to 31,000-35,000 RMB/ton (all prices above are cash ex-warehouse including tax).

This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market has been operating weakly and stably. Yan Tai industry analyst Yang Xun believes that in the general direction of a "slow adjustment" pace, the vast majority of producers maintain a weak yet stable operation, with a few making minor adjustments based on their actual situations. Facing the weak start of the fourth quarter, the sluggish demand market, and an internally competitive supply market, suppliers are mostly focusing on capturing essential orders to prioritize shipments. In the short term, during the price-sensitive period, the latest pricing policies of major large-scale producers will once again become a focal point of attention. Prior to this, the price market is expected to remain stable and closely observed. Specific transaction prices will still be determined by individual discussions based on order size, quantity, and payment terms.